The SERFS to DAVOS Ratio by James Jaeger
If the world COULD be operated by 500,000 people and they worked with strong artificial intelligence (SAI) to serve the interests of say 7,000 elites, I'm sure it WILL happen. Thus this brings up the question I have been trying to get answered for at least 10 years: WHAT IS THE OPTIMUM NUMBER OF HUMANS FOR A PLANET OUR SIZE? And the sister question: HOW DO YOU WANT TO DEFINE THE WORD "OPTIMUM"?
I don't see how many other questions can be answered until and unless this question, and its sister, are addressed. Need to address the sister first.
Right now we have a world with basically 6 billion SERFS (a "serf" defined as anyone who earns less than $3,000,000 per year). In this world we have approximately 50,000 people in the Party of DAVOS. Never heard of it? You weren't particularly supposed to.
So the SERFS to DAVOS ratio, as of 2006, is about 6,000,000,000:50,000 or 120,000:1.
Thus it requires about 120,000 SERFS to service the "needs" of the ultra rich in DAVOS. And this makes sense, as this number of people are required in the chain of manufacturing to build sub-products used for further sub-products... which are ultimately used for the valuable final products (VFPs) the super rich in DAVOS consume; OR products needed to sustain the SERFS so they can continue to build sub-products and assemble VFPs for DAVOS.
As SAI moves into play, the SERFS will be replaced and the DAVOS to SERFS ratio will move towards some mathematical "optimum" limit (from the POV of DAVOS).
Determining that limit will be a function of the following factors:
A. How much diversity is wanted or tolerated by DAVOS;
B. The SAI manufacturing leverage obtainable, i.e., how many SERFS will still be needed to "work with" SAI;
C. What standard of living is desired for DAVOS;
D. How many worlds will be opened up, i.e., just Earth or will Mars and other planets/moons be colonized as well so that greater diversity of riches can be supplied to A above;
E. Other factors.
Factor D is an interesting factor because the potential real estate in the Solar Sys and Galaxy is enormous. To the degree DAVOS desires to HAVE possessions and diversity (especially sexual), it may have to allow larger SERF populations, here on Earth and/or off world, to service its expanding desires.
Also, there may be functions SAI will never be able which will require human neural nets and thus the DAVOS to SERF ratio will have to remain higher.
All of the above are problems we already have on our plate and you can be assured I'm not the only one working on them.
But the question always comes back to the fact that the OPTIMUM world must be postulated before anything remotely predictable can happen. I will go so far as to even term it the IDEAL WORLD needs to be postulated. Yes, for all you "realists" out there, computing ideals is NOT just an academic exercise, but REAL engineering because if you don't know what your IDEAL scene AND your EXISTING scene are you can't engineer a critical path from one to the other. So we're right back to a management problem: management of Earth resources of which humans and SAI will eventually be alternative, if not competing, resources.
Again, the target "ideal" future must be postulated otherwise you will get some OTHER future. And the way the universe handles indecision is it allows the Law of Entropy to do the "managing." That's the universe's default plan: entropy. A corollary to this is: to the degree the SERFS don't postulate, DAVOS will. Thus the actual future will be an emergent property of all the postulated futures, SERF and DAVOS and we will move towards that -- just like an oiji board.
So, if you want to have a say in your future, you better get out there and vote out all the incumbents because right now these people are serving the Party of DAVOS: not you, The People. That's the initial target, vote out the entrenched DAVOS mechanism.
05 September 2006
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