CAUSAL SERENDIPITY The Future Could Be Better Than Ever
by James Jaeger
It dawned on me that right now -- as bad as things seem -- the technological bases are loaded more than ever. If we made just a handful of interrelated technologies go right, we could unlock a world of peace, prosperity and opportunity like never before.
Here are some of the technologies we have in development or deployment:
3D PRINTING AI-COUNSELLING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE COLONIZATION CRYPTO-CURRENCY FISSION REACTORS FUSION REACTORS INTERNET LIFE EXTENSION NEURALINK QUANTUM COMPUTING ROCKET PLANES SOLAR CELLS VIRUS MODELING OTHER...
Perhaps it is impossible to master these technologies from where we are now, but perhaps if these technologies are mastered in a certain order, we can master all of them (more quickly).
For example, Michael Moore released a film recently that found that manufacturing solar cells burn more fossil fuels than the electricity the solar cells produce -- might as well have burned the fossil fuels for the electricity. So why not use fission reactors to make solar cells. Today fission reactors are used to make electricity which, once burned, is gone forever. If the same fission reactors are used to just make solar cells, the solar cells will then make electricity indefinitely. We will thus be using existing energy to create future energy rather than using energy just for consumption. So this is an example of correct sequencing of technology.
Another example. Quantum computers will be able to model molecules much quicker and more accurately than classical computers. Thus, if a quantum computer is able to model a coffee molecule or COVID virus, why could it not model a tokamak or a stellarator? Why do we spend billions of dollars building ITER-type prototypes in real_space when we could "build" possible fusion reactors in cyber_space, test them and then build the real ones that actually work.
By the same token, why do we grow thousands of viral antibodies in real_space (taking great amounts of time) and then test them on thousands of real_people (at great risk) when we could "grow" them with AI running on quantum computers in cyber_space and then test and release the best candidates.
Combined point. Why not use AI running on a quantum computer to model the best design for a fusion reactor and power the whole complex with solar cells made from fission reactors, as discussed above?
There have been many movies over the past 40 years showing how "everything is connected." In fact one series was called CONNECTIONS. So given all technologies are connected, why not use this fact of Nature to our benefit? Rather than sit around and wait for serendipity to haphazardly solve our battle with Nature, let's be proactive and use our "nature" to cause serendipity. Perhaps this is a job for Narrow AI: figure out what human technologies should be done first, second, third, etc.
If one technology makes the next technology (more) possible, it then follows that some next technology will never happen unless some specific earlier technology is accomplished first.
Perhaps we are trying to solve (some) problems that exceed the capacity of our brains -- our current brains. Perhaps creating Human-level AI or Strong AI is impossible until we use a machine technology to augment our intelligence. Perhaps we need a neuralink-type technology to augment our intelligence enough to do the programming necessary for AI.
Or perhaps the key to increased human intelligence is biological in nature. We need to genetically engineer the human brain to be smarter but the drug(s) that will do that can only be created and modeled by Narrow AI running on a quantum computer. We need to do what is at hand and then apply that to the next thing we need to do. The next technological advancement is always at hand; it only needs to be identified and done.
So if A, B, C, D, E, F, G is the easiest and most economically viable sequence of technological advancement for the Human Civilization, but the Human Civilization tries to do B, A, F, D, E, C, G to advance technologically, then it only stands to reason that nothing much will happen for a long time -- we will always be 30 years away from FUSION or QUANTUM COMPUTERS.
If what I stated here makes any sense, what's the problem that exists that prevents Humanity from figuring out A, B, C, D, E, F, G and avoiding B, A, F, D, E, C, G? I would argue it's "energy allocation" -- energy here meaning "money, resources and human ingenuity." Unfortunately people and entities that allocate energy, especially money, are usually stupid about technology. I know this is a generalization, but it's been my life experience dealing with and observing investors, bankers, venture firms, agents, lawyers, accountants and most people in the business world, whether in corporate America, government or as individuals, tend to be stupid when it comes to technology. And here's why.
In order to have money you do NOT have to "work hard," "be persistent" and/or "build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door" as Emerson never said. These are myths rich people (and their positive-thinking sycophants) use to "justify" wealth accumulation and their claims to fortune.
The reality is, in order to be rich you have to take more than you give. Other than inheritance (the ultimate getting with no giving), you have to spend more time learning how to TAKE from your fellow humans than you do learning how to GIVE your fellow human beings better mouse traps. You thus need to take more than you give no matter how much you ultimately give. This is not only a mathematical reality and a conservation principle in the laws of thermodynamics, it's a formula in the world of accounting known as the "Accounting Equation." The Accounting Equation is:
ASSETS = LIABILITIES + EQUITY
Translated to layman's terms this means:
Money = Costs + Ownership
Translated to expansion terms this means:
Income > Outgo + Reserves
In other words, in order to expand financially, your INCOME must be greater than your OUTGO plus what you already have in RESERVES. You must TAKE more than you GIVE by being better at "energy allocation" than your fellow human beings. Better acquiring and allocating assets to yourself, rather than others or Humanity. You think John D. Rockefeller didn't know and practice parasitic "energy allocation" as he systematically stole and destroyed each and every one of his competitors' oil businesses in the past century?! This system, he helped build, along with governments and other financial monsters like Rothschild, Morgan, Schiff, Forrestal, Goldman and Prescott Bush. This is why we now have 8 Rockefeller-type males -- Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Bernard Arnault, Mukesh Ambani, Steve Ballmer, Warren Buffett and Larry Page -- owning as much of the world's wealth as one half the global population owns collectively. The system, specifically the central banking Federal Reserve System, they have built automatically allocates half the world's energy to 8 men.
So if 8 men own half the world's money and resources, this means they probably own half the world's human ingenuity as well. Now combine these facts with my earlier statement -- PEOPLE WITH MONEY TEND TO BE STUPID ABOUT TECHNOLOGY -- and the problem we face is obvious.
Rich people tend to be stupid -- especially about technology -- because they have had to place most of their time and attention on learning how to MAKE MONEY rather than learning how to MAKE THINGS.
I know there are exceptions to this rule -- like Elon Musk, who is an engineer, but since we all have a finite amount of hours of life, how we allocate those hours -- to the study of making money or the study of technological advancement -- makes big difference in how the money, resources and human ingenuity of the world will be allocated. And I say this allocation has been crappy.
IF THE GATEKEEPERS OF MONEY, RESOURCES AND HUMAN INGENUITY ARE STUPID ABOUT TECHNOLOGY THEN THE WRONG TECHNOLOGIES WILL INEVITABLY BE ATTEMPTED OUT OF SEQUENCE AND AT GREAT WASTE.
This is the present situation even though we have the technological bases loaded.
So how do you get stupid people to invest in the right technologies? You use virtual reality simulations to propose and test various economic, political and social systems. Then, as a critical mass of people become aware of these sims, it will become obvious what has to be changed (who has to be jailed) in the actual civilization. If it becomes obvious that fractional reserve banking and/or fiat currency-issuing central banks are unjustly enriching certain people and elites by preempting the technology dividends provided by the ingenuity of computer workers, then this system can (more easily) be changed.
How one would do this is beyond the scope of this article but in theory sims might be a starting point. After all if modeling the microcosm of proteins, viruses and fusion reactors with AI-driven quantum computers is viable, then why not model the macrocosm of economic, political and social systems as sims?
There is a good chance this is already happening as increasing numbers feel we may already be living in a simulated world we know as "reality." Perhaps advanced, or future versions of ourselves, are already using "us" to model various scenarios for technological advancement or economic, political and social systems. If it makes sense to us, why not to them?
Given the technological bases are loaded, sims and models may be useful to help Humanity hit a home run on all levels. Hopefully I have put some of these challenges into perspective and you feel (more) positive about the future. Again, if we make even a handful of interrelated technologies go right, we could unlock a world of peace, prosperity and opportunity like never before.
04 September 2020
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